Absolute Risk charted as a function of Age, Relative Risk and Time

This table shows the Absolute Risk curves used by the Gail model 1 calculator. On each graph, the x-axis is Summary Relative Risk, and the y-axis is the Percent Chance of Developing Breast Cancer within Z years.  The columns in the table show Z = 10 years, 20 years, and 30 years.  The rows in the table show ages 20, 30, 40 and 50.

	Z = 10 years
Age 20
Age 30
Age 30, 2 biopsies	(use curve above)
Age 40
Age 40, 2 biopsies	(use curve above)
Age 50

 

	Z = 20 years.
Age 20
Age 30
Age 30, 2 biopsies	(use curve above)
Age 40
Age 40, 2 biopsies
Age 50

 

	Z = 30 years.
Age 20
Age 30
Age 30, 2 biopsies
Age 40
Age 40, 2 biopsies
Age 50

 

In each graph, the blue part of the curve was published in reference 1,  and the gray part of the curve shows my estimate of the curve extended to higher values of Summary Relative Risk.

The key thing to understand, is the difference between the Blue and Gray parts of the curves. Blue indicates WELL ESTABLISHED risk based on analysis of large population subgroups who actually have those exact risk profiles. If you do a Gail Model calculation that results in a Summary Relative Risk that corresponds to someplace on a Blue curve, then you can have high confidence that the Gail model is accurately predicting the absolute risk. The only way to get summary relative risk values on the Gray part of the curves, is to combine lots of extra risk factors. Then, it is hypothetically possible to calculate values that lie in the Gray range.

Values in the Gray range of the curves, are probably "close enough", but there is no way to prove it.

back to the Appendix or Try the actual Breast Cancer Risk Calculator.

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